Hobart and William Smith Colleges

7 March 2012 Lucas, Deutchman Discuss Super Tuesday

Associate Professor of Political Science DeWayne Lucas and Professor of Political Science Iva Deutchman were quoted in a Finger Lakes Times article about Super Tuesday results.

I think Romney has come up on top overall, but its also sort of one of those wins where you dont really win, said Lucas. This puts him ahead. He can reclaim the front-runner title based on the number of states [he won], but Santorum still has enough, I think, to carry him, to keep him viable for a second-person challenge.

Deutchman was quoted, Gingrich is really out of the picture. Not that Im working for Santorum, but I think Gingrich would do well to just drop out, and Ron Paul, hes the most interesting one in the race, but he doesnt seem to be able to win a state.

A member of the faculty since 2000, Lucas holds a B.A. from the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and his M.A. and Ph.D. from State University at Binghamton.
Deutchman, a member of the HWS faculty since 1987, holds a Ph.D. and a masters degree in political science from the University of Pennsylvania, and a bachelors degree from Hofstra University in political science and economics.

The full article follows.

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Finger Lakes Times
Romney, Santorum each pick up wins on Super Tuesday
Jim Miller March 7, 2012

GENEVA With the Ohio primary too close to call last night, Dan Olson was looking on the bright side.

Even if Rick Santorum wins by a point or two, [Mitt] Romneys gonna be able to pick up more delegates, said Olson, a Romney supporter and chair of Wayne Countys Republican Committee.Santorum does not have the organizational skills, and thats so apparent in a place like Ohio or Virginia, where he couldnt get on the ballot.

Romney who had Ohio in hand this morning and Santorum split most of the 10 states participating in yesterdays Super Tuesday Republican presidential primaries and caucuses.

[Ohio] was a horse race, said Sandy King, Yates County Republican chair. That was as good as the Kentucky Derby with Secretariat running. Newt Gingrich won his home state of Georgia.

I think Romney has come up on top overall, but its also sort of one of those wins where you dont really win, said DeWayne Lucas, a political science professor at Hobart and William Smith Colleges in Geneva. This puts him ahead. He can reclaim the front-runner title based on the number of states [he won], but Santorum still has enough, I think, to carry him, to keep him viable for a second-person challenge.

Pundits pegged Ohio as the marquee race, which, along with the close results, explained why Olson, Lucas and others were watching it so closely last night. The state is likely to be competitive in the general election this fall, and while its northern location favored Romney, Santorum seemed competitive in the polls.

While Romney appears to have won the most delegates yesterday, it probably wont settle the race for the Republican nomination.

I dont think weve gotten any more clear a picture than what we had, said Pat Riley, a member of Genevas Town Board and the towns Republican Party chairman. In my opinion, I see [Gingrich and Ron Paul falling], which should let the water clear so that the rest of the delegates can concentrate on the two front-runners.

Iva Deutchman, a colleague of Lucas at Hobart and William Smith, agreed. Gingrich is really out of the picture, she said. Not that Im working for Santorum, but I think Gingrich would do well to just drop out, and Ron Paul, hes the most interesting one in the race, but he doesnt seem to be able to win a state.

Deutchman offered her comments relatively early in the night, when Santorum led in Ohio by three points. She said a victory there would be especially significant for Santorum because it would break his pattern of winning mainly in southern states.

Riley wasnt ready to award perfect marks to either candidate. Hes leaning toward Santorum, describing him as the more blue-collar of the two front-runners, but has reservations.

I havent seen an economic platform from either of them that I think holds water, he said. If we could get a candidate that could show us how to put Americans back to work in America, on American soil, thats the candidate that I think everyone should muster behind, and right now I dont think either candidate has shown a clear-cut way to do that.

Riley will be watching for more detailed economic plans and more detailed policy statements in general in the run-up to New Yorks April 24 primary. New York is quiet, which is abnormal, he said. Typically, you come into Super Tuesday here and phones are ringing, asking what do you think, what do you think, where can we get signs, but theres really been no money spent. Theres been no action from the candidates. Maybe they think its gonna be all over and the flames will be gone and its all smoke by April 24. Maybe thats what they were counting on, but I dont think were going to see that.

King said the Tea Party is planning a large rally April 15 in Watkins Glen. For now she sees good points in both Romney and Santorum.

I think it continues on, King said. This is oursystem working the people are still sorting things out state by state.